Dire popularity ratings

Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, finds himself in deep negative territory in the opinion polls. Among 2024 Labour voters, he finds himself with a net approval rating of –45, and it’s very difficult indeed to see how he reverses Labour’s fortunes now that a critical mass of MPs have publicly withdrawn confidence this week.

Streeting is not much better off on –6. By contrast, Andy Burnham is streets ahead on +41, while Angela Rayner sits in second on +15.

But Sir John’s wider caution was that a leadership change is not, by itself, a recovery plan. The ability of any successor to turn around Labour’s fortunes depends on whether they can solve the problem Streeting identified in his resignation letter: vision and direction.

Voters uncertain over what Labour stands for

The key for any would-be successor is to address voters’ uncertainty about what this Government represents.

According to Ipsos, in June 2022, when Labour were in opposition, 49% of the electorate were not clear on what Starmer stands for. By April 2026, despite two years of governing, this number went up to 55%.

In a multi-party environment, Sir John argued, clarity matters more than ever. It is no longer enough to be “competent” or “moderate” if voters can’t answer a basic question: what do you believe in? Voters can answer that question far more easily for figures such as Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski – and that clarity has translated into significant electoral momentum for their respective parties.

The implication for those seeking to overthrow Starmer is obvious: without offering a firm identity or narrative, the party risks ceding further ground to the insurgent parties. The precise ideological direction may ultimately matter less than the willingness to choose one and commit to it.

The erosion of the two-party system creates a complex picture

The Labour leader will also need to adapt to a political system that is no longer structured around two dominant parties. Since autumn last year, combined support for the two main parties has hovered around 40% – a level not seen before in modern British politics.

Within this fragmented system, Labour needs to consider carefully where its real electoral threats lie. The local election results appeared, on the surface, to show Reform versus Labour outside London and Greens versus Labour inside it, but the underlying vote shifts are more complicated than that.

Reform is growing fastest in areas that were previously Conservative strongholds, drawing heavily from disillusioned Tory voters rather than Labour’s Red Wall. Meanwhile, Labour’s own losses are more closely tied to Green advances than Reform advances.

Under first-past-the-post, parties do not lose seats only because their voters switch directly to another party; fragmentation itself changes electoral outcomes. For Labour, the risk is focusing too heavily on Reform as a universal threat, while overlooking the constituencies where its own support is being eroded more significantly by the Greens.

Labour’s task, then, is twofold. The party needs a clear national identity that tells voters what values it stands for, but it will also require great skill – and leadership – to fight different political battles in different parts of the country.