The sea channel has become a pivotal negotiating pillar in the ongoing US-Iran conflict, but is just the latest international dispute affecting policymaking, after complex debate over the Chagos deal, regime change in Venezuela, and President Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland.

Late on Friday, the US Treasury Department announced a significant policy U-turn as it continued a pause on sanctions against other nations purchasing Russian oil at sea. A mere two days earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had informed reporters the pause would not be extended.

Discussions about the Strait now not only highlight the literal disruption of global supply chains, as oil and gas shipments hit a bottleneck, but also the knock-on disruption to businesses caused by jittery, unpredictable, and uncertain policymaking. While tension in the Strait is a clear example of foreign policymaking uncertainty, many areas of domestic policy, including energy security, immigration, and employment rights are being marred by similar U-turns and indecision.

Uncertainty is now embedded in the current political and economic climate, casting a long shadow on businesses around the world. In our new research, conducted in partnership with Survation, 88% of business leaders say uncertainty is impacting their business/sector, and over a quarter (27%) say the unstable global geopolitical climate is a major contributor.

Policy U-turns, such as the US continuing its pause on sanctions, are no longer a blip and businesses cannot afford to rest on their laurels and react to changes as they come. Instead, it’s crucial to anticipate challenges by tuning in to the overarching direction of travel on policy issues that affect them and deciding how to react in hypothetical situations ahead of time.

Amid the continued chaos, demand for insight and analysis in 2026 into what is coming next is rising: 36% of businesses plan to increase scenario planning and 33% horizon scanning to mitigate the impacts of uncertainty.

When the root causes of uncertainty are beyond our control, being able to better anticipate challenges through horizon scanning and scenario planning ensures that businesses can act with confidence, excel at what they can control, and succeed in the long-term.

At Luther Pendragon, we help firms to understand complexity and approach emerging issues with confidence. This includes our horizon scanning and intelligence service that cuts through information overload to identify the risks, trends, and policy shifts that matter most.

Photo by Planet Volumes on Unsplash