But the Chancellor was bullish and optimistic and stated that hers was the “right plan”, despite her forecast being derived from OBR numbers that did not account for the huge shocks over the weekend. Reeves singled out “stability” as the most important pre-condition of a strong economy, with reference to a slower rise in inflation. However, many were left scratching their heads at the apparent optimism, as the world braces for skyrocketing prices of gas and oil.

This emphasis on stability, or more so the challenge of maintaining it, has been a hot topic for other economists this week. Only days earlier, Andy Haldane, former chief economist at the Bank of England, penned a piece in the FT warning that two colossal disruptive waves are about to collide.

In his piece, Haldane first considered the geopolitical wave that has overturned the old rules-based order. Global trade, once the anchor of international cooperation, is now displaced by the need for national security. Governments are facing pressure on how to allocate resources in an increasingly adversarial world. We’re seeing defence soar up the political agenda, with the Chancellor keen to mention that this Government gave the green light to the biggest sustained uplift in defence spending since the Cold War.

Beyond this geopolitical reconfiguration, Haldane also perceives the financial wave to be equally as impactful. Investors have become captivated by the acceleration of technological opportunity, most evident in the ballooning ‘AI bubble’. 2025 saw this AI buoyancy counteract the global turmoil over tariffs which has neutralised into something of an equilibrium. Haldane argues, we saw a ‘polycrisis’ of disorder meeting disorder but with the surprise outcome of a self-stabilising resilient world.

But the first months of this year prove that this stability has never been more precarious. This next shock could easily tip the scales.

As these waves collide, demand for insight and analysis into what is coming next is rising. It’s not enough to reach for single cause explanations or speculation. Instead, organisations must be able to anticipate what is coming and how this will interact with the different variables. At Luther Pendragon, we help firms understand this complexity and approach emerging issues with confidence. One such example of this is our horizon scanning work for the Lloyd’s Market Association and its members, mapping key policy areas across UK, EU and US markets and covering legal and regulatory updates.