Continued defections to Reform – along with the announcement of Lord Offord as the party’s new Scottish leader – and dwindling support for the UK Government are reshaping how political debate is conducted. It is also reshaping how the private and public sectors are drawn into it amid increasing polarisation.

A noisier, less predictable landscape

While the government in Scotland is still likely to be led by the SNP, the picture in Wales is less settled. In both cases, the election period will bring further opportunity for opposition parties to influence debate and shape narratives. For example, core battlegrounds in Scotland ahead of the May elections include energy and net zero – with Ed Miliband also in Scotland today – migration and public spending. Reform, in particular, will be able to capitalise on the concerns voters have on these issues.

For organisations, this means preparing for a political and media environment in which positions are more likely to be simplified, and nuance harder to sustain.

The messaging risk, not just policy

The primary risk in 2026 is not sudden policy change, but most likely an organisation’s legacy messaging being cited, both positively and negatively, in political debate.

In this environment, organisations that don’t conduct regular reviews or assume political stability could be wrong-footed. Equally, sudden shifts in tone or positioning are in danger of appearing reactive and undermining credibility.

What preparation actually looks like

Those who have been preparing and tailoring their messaging ahead of 2026 will be in a better position than those who haven’t. The next few months are about continuing to stress-test public positions and narratives against an environment involving more adversarial debate, and being clear on when to speak and when to hold off. Elections are not just political milestones; they are moments of opportunity, but also periods of heightened communications risk.

Looking ahead to May.